The regular season has come to an end, and after a thrilling ending, the Portland Trail Blazers and the Memphis Grizzlies will play the first ever play-in games to decide who gets the last playoff spot. Portland has to win once while Memphis has to win back-to-back games, and the winner gets to take on the Los Angeles Lakers.
Shootout
Every single person who has watched the Portland Trail Blazers has realized one thing: This team gives you a lot of buckets, but opposing teams will have their way offensively too. In the 8 games Portland played in the bubble, they have led everyone in points scored while being second worst in points allowed. Every game has been decided by less than double digits.
One reason for that is the fact that the Blazers barely played bench squads. With the exception of the Los Angeles Clippers, no one decided to rest their players against the Blazers. Their opponents for the 8th seed played multiple games where the opposing team rested players.
But the biggest reason is their absolute lack of perimeter defense. Teams shoot with good efficiency at a high volume against the Blazers. They are the second worst when it comes to opponent’s 3PM, and are just one place better for opponent 3PFG%. Only the Nuggets (both for FGM and %) and the Bucks are worse, while those 2 teams have rested their main core in multiple games.
The Grizzlies are certainly no lockdown defending team either, as they rank amongst the worst 8 for both stats as well. Their inexperience has showed in the bubble, as they were only able to win 2 games and barely held off the 8-0 Suns because of the tiebreaker they held over Phoenix.
On the other end, the Grizzlies don’t shine, while the Blazers do. Memphis ranks amongst the bottom 5 for both 3PM and 3PFG%, and Portland is top 3 in both. But bad shooting teams still get in a rhythm against Portland because shooters get wide open looks. For Portland, that doesn’t matter. They shoot right over the top of their defenders with supreme confidence.
Injuries
Both sides are struggling with injuries right now. Justice Winslow and Jaren Jackson Jr. are ruled out for the Grizzlies season, while the Blazers miss Rodney Hood and Trevor Ariza (who isn’t injured but didn’t participate in the bubble due to personal reasons). On top of that, C.J. McCollum is reportedly playing with a non-displaced fracture in his back since the first game of the bubble against, ironically enough, the Grizzlies while battling for a ball with JJJ.
But the Blazers are already more than happy that after a season plagued with injuries, they can field a relatively healthy 8-man rotation. Portland has kept its rotation very short because the margin for error is minimal, and it has paid off thus far. But at some point, fatigue might hit. Are the Blazers, and especially Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins, who had been out for a longer period of time prior to the bubble, conditioned enough to play through whatever comes their way?
Prediction
Anyone who has seen the Grizzlies in the bubble knows that they haven’t looked good at all. Their offence is stagnant, their defense porous, they don’t have that superstar yet and they simply lack experience all around. It will take a team effort to take down the Blazers, because open shots are coming their way.
But they have to win back-to-back games, and that’s very tough against any team, let alone a team that already beat them when JJJ was still healthy. There’s a reason the Blazers are 6-2 while the Grizzlies are the opposite. They are better and more experienced and have better players in every position.
Blazers should get this one done tonight, to get them some rest. Damian Lillard has led the bubble in minutes, with C.J. right behind him and Carmelo Anthony being in the top 10 as well. If they want to upset the Lakers in first round. That extra day of rest, while not having to play on back-to-back nights, will go a long way. Blazers in 1.
Courtside 