The NBA restart has entered its final seeding day for the 4 teams still battling for the last playoff spot. 2 of the Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs can make the play-in on their last day. It is incredible that it comes down to this, so let’s first take a look at the current situation and then discuss which teams have a good chance.
Current situation:
Portland Trail Blazers: 34-39, *8th in West, Next game v. Nets
Memphis Grizzlies: 33-39, *9th, Next game v. Bucks, Holds tiebreaker over Suns
Phoenix Suns: 33-39, 10th, Next game v. Mavericks
San Antonio Spurs: 32-38, 11th, Next game v. Jazz
*9th seed has to beat 8th seed twice, 8th seed has to beat 9th seed once
Portland Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers have been fighting to keep their heads above water all season long, and finally captured the 8th seed just in time for their last game. The Blazers control their own faith and get to the play-in in 12 out of 16 scenarios, with 9 of them having Portland locked in at 8th. Regardless of the outcome of the other games, if Portland wins, the teams stays at 8th.
They also play the Brooklyn Nets, who are obviously missing a lot of key players and they are already locked in at 7th in the Eastern conference. The Blazers might need one last virtuoso performance from Damian Lillard, who will probably get ‘Bubble MVP’. Dame has averaged 37 points and 9 assists, respectively good for first and third in the bubble, while shooting 49%, 41% from deep and leading the bubble in 3PM while guiding his team to a 5-2 record.
His back-to-back performances of 51 and 61 points led to some legendary statistics. He now has 11 50-point games, tied for 8th in history. He now also put up 3 60-pieces, all of which came this season. Lillard is the only player besides Wilt Chamberlain to score 60 3 times in the same season.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies might have lost against the Celtics on Tuesday, which led to them losing the 8th spot, but still got a gift that day. Giannis Antetokounmpo decided to headbutt Mo Wagner and got suspended for one game. The reigning MVP is now out for the Bucks’ matchup against the Grizzlies.
Another thing to consider is that Taylor Jenkins, head coach for the Grizzlies, was an assistant under… Mike Budenholzer in Milwaukee (and Atlanta). With Giannis out, Coach Bud might opt to rest their other starters or limit their playing time, since they’re already locked in at the number one seed in the East. Everyone in Memphis certainly hopes so.
From a pure mathematics standpoint, where you have a 50/50 chance of winning, Memphis has a 10/16 chance to make the play-in, with a 1-in-4 chance of getting the 8th seed (basically if Portland loses and Grizzlies win).
Phoenix Suns
The Bubble might have a bittersweet ending for the Suns. They are currently undefeated at 7-0 in the bubble, and even a win tonight against Dallas doesn’t secure their play-in spot. With only a 6/16 chance, the Suns have to hope that either Memphis or Portland lose tonight.
But even if the Suns don’t make it, this experience was a lot to build on. The Suns even posted their first 4-game winning streak of Devin Booker’s career, who is in his 5th season. This is also the first time they’ve come remotely close to competing for a playoff spot or even playing meaningful basketball since Booker was drafted.
But the Suns had that kind of time, because Booker is still only 23. The team seems to have found the right pieces around him and that has led to an excellent record in the bubble, where Booker is the only other player in running for ‘Bubble MVP’ other than Dame. The improvement of the other young pieces like Ayton, Bridges and Johnson gives the Suns hope for the future, even more so with them getting Kelly Oubre back in the future.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs on the other hand will just be bitter, and they’re not entirely wrong. The only reason that the Spurs are 11th while having the same game balance as the Grizzlies and Suns is that the Spurs have played 2 less games than those 2. Since they all have a record under .500, those 2 more games for Memphis and Phoenix mean that they gain minimal percentage points over the Spurs, even if they both essentially went 1-1 over that stretch.
But that’s the way it panned out for the Spurs unfortunately, and their 22-year playoff streak will most likely come to an end. The have to hope 2 of the other 3 teams lose and they have to win their own game, giving them a 1-in-4 chance to make it.
The Spurs will have decisions to make this summer with DeRozan’s impending player option, Aldridge entering the final year of his contract and Jakob Poeltl being up for a payday as well. Maybe the legendary Coach Pop decides to call it a career, leaving the reigns of the castle to Tim Duncan and Becky Hammon.
Courtside 