Portland Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic went down with a gruesome leg injury in last Monday’s double overtime win against the Brooklyn Nets. If you haven’t seen it, you can consider yourself to be amongst the lucky ones. Nurkic’ left leg snapped in half, leaving him with compound fractures in his tibia and fibula. He underwent surgery and his season is over, leaving the Blazers with a lot of questions ahead of the playoffs.
Nurkic was having a breakout year in his 2nd full season with Portland. He became the first player in NBA history to record a 20/20/5/5/5, had his first career triple-double going along his 5 blocks in a blowout win over the Cavs, and was averaging career highs in points, rebounds, blocks, assists, FG%, FT% and 3P%.
The Bosnian center established himself as the legitimate 3rd option behind Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum last season, which got him a 4-year/$48m contract in the offseason and continued to grow into his role this season.
The Blazers looked poised for a deep playoff run with their fringe big 3, alongside a good supporting cast. After trading for Rodney Hood and signing backup center Enes Kanter when he got waived by the Knicks, the Blazers looked like the deepest team in the western conference. But Nurkic’ injury changes the whole dynamic for this Portland team, that’s desperately searching for its first playoff win in almost 3 years after having been swept in the previous 2 years, by Golden State and New Orleans respectively. The Blazers have a few options to try to cope without their starting center in the playoffs, and they need to figure it out quickly, as only 5 games remain in the regular season to experiment. Portland has to use those as a sort of preseason, finding out which lineup works the best.
Spreading Nurkic’ minutes evenly over Kanter and Collins
This is the first option the Blazers could explore. Zach Collins and Enes Kanter are the 4 and 5 in Portland’s second unit, but both can play the five spot. Ever since Kanter joined the Blazers, Nurkic has averaged 27.8 minutes per game; Kanter has logged 18.5 per game and Collins is at 14. If the Blazers choose not to play Meyers Leonard, who hasn’t really seen a lot of action since Kanter’s arrival at the Moda Center, both Kanter’s and Collins’ minutes could see a huge spike, with both of them averaging around 30 per game. And this option could be very probable for the Blazers, as teams tend to usually cut down the players in their rotation for the playoffs. The Blazers, with everyone healthy, have used an 11-man rotation until now. It seems improbable that they will continue using it going into the playoffs, so both Collins and Kanter might see an increase in minutes.
Going with the next best option available
Head coach Terry Stotts might want to opt for the safest option available here. Starting either Kanter or Collins, giving one of them the minutes Nurkic used to play, with the other coming off the bench as the backup center. Meyers Leonard would then come into the fold as the power forward off the bench. This option ensures that the best available player would be on the court the most, and that the rotation minutes stay set. The Blazers have opted to start with Kanter for now in the 4 games since their starting center went down, going 3-1 in that stretch.
But playing it safe is a luxury that the Blazers unfortunately don’t have. Their 3rd best player is out and getting bounced in the first round is not a route Portland wants to go down. Again. With a disadvantage like this one risks become necessary, even if it has become clear that Stotts is a man of routine and certainty.
Starting Meyers Leonard
Anyone who has seen Meyers Leonard play since he put pen to paper on a 4-year/$41m deal in 2016 would say this is the craziest option, but it could actually work. Leonard finally started looking like he was worth his contract in the first part of the season, but he was quickly shoved aside when Kanter signed with the team just before the all-star break. He played just 3 games and 27 minutes since, 18 of those coming in a game against the Raptors in which Kanter couldn’t travel with the team.
Now no one’s saying that Leonard should be a center for a team that’s looking to go on a deep playoff run, but he could be worth the gamble. Leonard shoots at a 47% clip from three-point range (48/103), which is flat out ridiculous for a center. His ability to stretch the floor as a center would eliminate, or at least diminish, the impact of inside defensive presences like Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela and Nikola Jokic. That would mean that crafty ballhandlers like Lillard and McCollum would be able to slash towards the paint more and get more of those easy points in the paint. If the opposing team’s center decides to come over and help, you’ve got a sniper wide-open for three, which Lillard and McCollum will find with ease.
Added to that, Stotts doesn’t have to mess with his second unit. The group functions well, and learning how to play with each other isn’t easy and almost impossible with 5 games left. We’ve seen them do the same with McCollum out, opting to go with Layman as the starting shooting guard, and not Rodney Hood, the clear second-best option. That way the second unit got even more time with each other and had the chance to grow together, as it is one of the most dangerous in the league that could really hurt opposing teams when the starters aren’t on the floor.
On the flipside, Leonard isn’t the best defender, and could easily be bullied inside by bigger centers. But that’s basically the case with all three options for the Blazers. Kanter has been known to be a sub-par defender, infamously being benched in the 2017 playoffs against the Rockets because he couldn’t defend the Harden-Capela pick-and-roll and Collins has shown signs of good positioning and shot blocking instincts, but the 21-year old is just in his second year in the league and hasn’t grown into his body yet.
Having to cope with Nurkic’ injury definitely won’t be easy, and there’s no right or wrong answer. Terry Stotts will have to come up with a great game plan, Damian Lillard will have to play on his MVP-level again, C.J. McCollum will have to become the consistent 21+ ppg scorer he was for so long and the supporting cast will have to fill their roles perfectly. But more than anything we hope the ‘Bosnian Beast’ will make a full recovery soon to give us heated exchanges and hilarious interactions with opposing teams’ superstars on the court again. Prayers up and we want you to come back to the court better than ever.
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